EIA： By 2025, photovoltaics, energy storage, and wind power will account for 93% of the total installed electricity capacity in the United States

Recently, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy predicted that by 2025, utility scale solar capacity will reach 32.5GW, energy storage capacity will be slightly higher than 18GW, wind power is expected to increase by 7.7GW, and fossil natural gas production capacity will increase by 4.4GW.

The agency's latest preliminary monthly generator inventory report (EIA-860M) shows that the total new capacity by 2025 will reach approximately 63GW, the highest annual installed capacity in the United States. By contrast, according to EIA data, 48.6GW of utility scale capacity was deployed in 2024, the highest total since 2002 when approximately 60GW of new capacity was connected to the grid.

It is expected that by 2025, solar energy will account for 51.5% of all newly installed capacity. Texas will lead the installed capacity with 11.6 GW of new solar installations, accounting for nearly 36% of all new solar installations. California follows closely with 2.9GW, while the other five states (Indiana, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, and New York) are expected to deploy over 1GW of capacity.

The energy storage capacity is expected to increase significantly, by 18.2GW. Although the report did not provide detailed information on storage duration, the two largest battery markets (California and Texas) typically deploy systems with four hours and two and a half hours of storage capacity, respectively.

Texas is expected to add 6.7GW of energy storage, followed by 4.3GW in California and 3.6GW in Arizona. These three states will account for over 80% of all new battery storage capacity.

The two largest battery projects planned to be implemented by 2025 each have a production capacity of 500MW. One located in Kern County, California, will be co located with a 500MW solar power plant, which is the largest planned power plant for this year. The second project is located at the Wharton School in Texas and will be paired with a 451.6MW solar facility, which is the second largest solar power plant planned for 2025.

EIA's short-term energy outlook data shows that small-scale solar energy (residential, commercial, and industrial) will increase capacity by 7GW, and by the end of 2025, the total installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics will reach 60.6GW. If combined with a utility scale capacity of 32.5GW ac (42GW dc), the total deployment of solar modules this year may approach 50GW.

EIA initially predicted that the United States would deploy over 50GW of solar capacity in 2024, and the agency's November capacity report estimate remains unchanged. However, the latest data indicates that EIA has lowered its capacity estimate for 2024 by approximately 7GW. This revision is consistent with the expected deployment surge in January 2025.