From 2025 to 2028, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in Africa is expected to reach 23GW

According to the "2022-2028 African Photovoltaic Market Outlook" report released by the Global Solar Council (GSC), the annual newly installed solar capacity in Africa in 2024 is 2.403 GW, a decrease of nearly 22% compared to 3.076 GW in 2023. The report was jointly released by the Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) and received GET Invest support.

South African market share declines, Egyptian market rapidly gains

South Africa remains the largest solar installation market in Africa, accounting for 46% of all new installations in Africa in 2024, but its share has significantly decreased compared to 79% in 2023. Egypt will experience significant growth in 2024, with its market share increasing from 5% in 2023 to 29%.

The market is expected to rebound significantly in 2025 and maintain a compound annual growth rate of 30% for the next four years

GSC pointed out that the delay in the development of photovoltaic projects in North Africa is the main reason for the decline in photovoltaic installed capacity in Africa in 2024. However, it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of new installed capacity will rebound to 42% in 2025, as projects postponed in 2024 will be gradually connected to the grid in 2025, especially the bidding project in Algeria. In addition, Mozambique, Ghana, and Morocco will also be important driving forces for installed capacity growth in 2025.

By 2025, it is expected that 18 African countries will add solar installations of over 100MW, while only 2 countries will meet this standard by 2024.

GSC has made scenario forecasts for the market trends from 2025 to 2028. Under a neutral scenario forecast, the installed photovoltaic capacity in Africa is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% from 2025 to 2028, with a total of 23GW added over the next four years. The predicted new installed capacity for the pessimistic and optimistic scenarios is 9.2 GW and 47 GW, respectively.

High capital costs may become a major obstacle to the development of photovoltaics

Despite the enormous market potential, GSC believes that African countries still need to overcome some key challenges to narrow the gap between electricity supply and demand. These challenges are mainly related to insufficient power grid infrastructure, lack of scalability, power outages, currency risks, and weak purchasing power of small-scale solutions.

GSC specifically mentioned that financing difficulties are also one of the important issues that the African market needs to address. At present, the participation of private sector investors is limited, and there is a lack of large-scale low-cost financing and new financing tools. The report points out that the capital cost of solar energy in Africa is 3 to 7 times higher than in developed countries, but the region only receives 3% of global energy investment. To achieve energy access and climate goals, Africa needs an annual investment of $200 billion, but it will only reach $40 billion by 2024.

GSC CEO Sonia Dunlop said, "High capital costs remain the main obstacle to solar expansion in Africa. To attract domestic and foreign investment, it is necessary to de risk, mobilize preferential financing, and deploy innovative financing models. With the right policies and financial mechanisms, Africa has the potential to become the world's most competitive solar economy

The report also emphasizes that Africa should develop local solar manufacturing industries to ensure that photovoltaic technology becomes a powerful driving force for the region's energy transition.